Markets likely to make gap-up opening amid hopes of easing tensions in West Asia

Indian equity markets are likely to make a gap-up opening on Monday, buoyed by hopes of easing tensions in West Asia after US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Tehran are set to begin. Investors will also closely watch the manufacturing PMI data due later in the day. Additionally, market participants will keep an eye on the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, which begins on August 3, with the policy decision scheduled for August 5.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

Gross GST collection kitty swells 15.4% to over Rs 2.11 trillion in July: Gross GST collections grew 15.4 per cent to over Rs 2.11 trillion in July on higher mop-up from domestic transactions and imports. Gross GST collections were Rs 1.83 trillion in July 2025. It was about Rs 1.95 trillion last month.

India’s forex reserves jump $6.12 billion to $682.35 billion: The Reserve Bank said India’s forex reserves jumped $6.118 billion to $682.354 billion during the week ended July 24. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had increased $1.08 billion to $676.237 billion.

RBI says $40.82 billion mobilised under forex swap facility till July 31: The Reserve Bank said its concessional swap facility, introduced to encourage foreign currency inflows, has attracted $40.82 billion till July 31. The swap facility has seen avid interest and attracted steady forex inflows since June 8, 2026.

Fiscal deficit touches 18.2% of full-year target in Q1: Data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed that the central government’s fiscal deficit stood at 18.2 per cent of the full-year target at the end of June. The deficit was at 17.9 per cent of Budget Estimates (BE) of 2025-26 in the first three months of the previous financial year.

Bank credit to industry records robust growth of 19.2% in June: RBI data reported that Bank credit to industry recorded a robust growth of 19.2 per cent in June compared to 6.3 per cent in the year-ago period as large companies as well as MSMEs displayed broad-based expansion.

Global front: The US markets ended in green on Friday, led by a sharp rally in Amazon (AMZN) shares, with the online retail giant surging 15.3 percent to its highest closing level in two months. Asian markets are trading mostly in red on Monday despite the broadly positive cues from Wall Street on Friday overnight.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended in green on Friday, supported by gains in Auto, Capital Goods and Industrials stocks. The positive undertone was supported by a sharp rally in global markets, robust domestic quarterly earnings and sustained foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows. However, profit-taking in IT stocks along with the uncertain situation in the Middle East limited the gains in the market. Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 166.49 points or 0.21% to 78,094.64 and the CNX Nifty was up by 66.45 points or 0.27% to 24,383.60.   

Some of the important factors in trade: 

India-EU FTA includes comprehensive plan to address EU carbon tax concerns: Additional Secretary in the Department of Commerce, Darpan Jain has said the India-European Union (EU) Free Trade Agreement (FTA) includes a comprehensive work plan to address concerns surrounding the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), commonly referred to as the carbon tax. 

Growth in Asia-Pacific region likely to moderate to 4.1% in 2026: Moody's in its latest report has said that the growth in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region is likely to moderate to 4.1 per cent in 2026 from 4.3 per cent in 2025 and further to slow down to 3.6 per cent in 2027, amid high commodity prices, tighter policy settings, and unusually hot and dry weather.

India, Bhutan review progress of India-supported projects, ink Rs 4,000 crore line of credit: Deeping bilateral ties, India and Bhutan have reviewed the progress and implementation of India-supported projects across diverse sectors in Bhutan. Further, they inked pact for a concessional line of credit of Rs 4,000 crore (Nu 40 billion) to support development initiatives in Bhutan.