Benchmarks likely to make gap-up opening ahead of RBI's monetary policy outcome

Indian equity markets are likely to make gap-up opening on Wednesday, amid positive cues from global markets and ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy announcement. Sentiments may remain upbeat amid hopes for progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Washington and Tehran could reach a deal soon. Meanwhile, traders are likely to adopt wait-and-watch approach ahead of the HSBC Composite PMI Final data, to be out later in the day.

Some of the key factors to be watched:

Indian economy to hit $5-trillion mark in FY29 as per IMF: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that Indian economy is set to cross $5-trillion mark in FY29 as per the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the government has adopted a broad-based growth strategy to achieve the milestone.

Increase in ODI outflows underscores growing global aspirations of Indian enterprises: Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Jitin Prasada said that the increase in ODI (Outward Direct Investment) outflow underscores the growing global aspirations and capabilities of Indian enterprises as they venture abroad to acquire strategic assets, access new markets and tap into advanced technologies.

India, US working towards interim trade agreement: The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said that India and the US are working towards an interim trade agreement, with a few issues requiring finalisation.

India's exports from SEZs up 11.8% in 2025-26: Data provided by Minister of State for Commerce and Industry Jitin Prasada showed that the country's exports from special economic zones (SEZs) rose by 11.8 per cent year-on-year to Rs 16,36,192 crore ($185.28 billion) in 2025-26.

Piyush Goyal likely to visit US for G20 trade ministers meet next month: The report said that Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal is expected to visit the United States at the end of September this year for the G-20 Trade Ministerial in Milwaukee.

Global front: The US markets ended higher on Tuesday, after Commerce Department said the U.S. trade deficit narrowed roughly in line with estimates in June. The trade deficit shrank to $73.3 billion in June from $77.6 billion in May. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Wednesday tracking broadly positive cues from Wall Street overnight, amid rising optimism over a potential interim agreement between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks closed lower on Tuesday, as investors turned cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Besides, adjustments to the new F&O closing-auction mechanism and rising crude oil prices added to market volatility and weighed on sentiment. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 210.08 points or 0.27% to 78,428.95 and the CNX Nifty was down by 159.40 points or 0.64% to 24,614.90.

Some of the important factors in trade:

Govt proposes easier tax regime to enhance global competitiveness: The Government has proposed significant relaxations to the eligibility criteria for Eligible Investment Funds (EIFs) managed from India, aiming to strengthen the country's position as a global fund management hub.

Govt hikes windfall tax on petrol, diesel, ATF exports: The government has increased the windfall tax on exports of petrol, diesel, and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) for the fortnight starting August 3, 2026. The rate of special additional excise duty (SAED) on export of diesel will be Rs 25.5 per litre, up from Rs 15.5 per litre.

India, Uzbekistan to deepen strategic partnership across key sectors: India and Uzbekistan have agreed to deepen their strategic partnership by expanding cooperation in defence, trade, mining, energy, infrastructure, education, and culture. The decision was taken during a comprehensive review of bilateral ties held by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Uzbekistan's Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov.