Markets likely to make cautious start on Wednesday

Indian equity markets are likely to make a cautious start on Wednesday amid rising oil prices, continued uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the possibility of a US-Iran agreement. Traders are likely to adopt a wait-and-watch ahead of consumer price index (CPI) data from India and the U.S. for fresh signals on the rate path.   

Some of the key factors to be watched:

India sixth-largest economy in world with $3.92 trillion GDP: Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook for April 2026 noted India's nominal GDP at $3.92 trillion for 2025-26, which makes India the sixth-largest economy in the world.

Net direct tax collection grows 23% to Rs 8.11 lakh crore so far this fiscal: The net direct tax collection grew 23.09 per cent to over Rs 8.11 lakh crore till August 10 in the current fiscal. The net corporate tax collection rose 19.83 per cent to about Rs 2.70 lakh crore, while non-corporate tax collection (which includes personal income tax) mop-up rose 23 per cent to Rs 5.07 lakh crore. 

Fitch affirms India's 'BBB-' credit rating with stable outlook: Fitch Ratings has affirmed India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-' with a stable outlook and said the domestic economy remains strong, despite headwinds from the energy shock arising from the West Asia crisis. 

MSME, DPIIT pact boosts GI products' market access: The government said the Ministry of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises and the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) have signed an agreement to boost commercialisation and market access of Indian GI products.

BRICS nations discussing linking CBDCs, fast payment systems: Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra has said that the BRICS nations are in discussions to link their respective central bank digital currencies and fast payment systems, such as India's UPI, to facilitate cheaper and faster fund transfers for trade and remittances.

Global front: US markets ended in red on Tuesday as a sell-off in major technology companies and uncertainty over the Iran conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz weighed on investor sentiment. Asian markets are trading mostly in green on Wednesday despite the broadly negative cues from Wall Street overnight. 

Back home, Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on Tuesday on continuing concerns over the conflict in the Middle East and the resulting spike in crude oil prices. Iran has warned it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless the U.S. meets a series of preconditions, including compensation, lifting of sanctions, and an end to military threats. Traders also braced for economic data from India and the U.S. for fresh signals on the rate path. Finally, the BSE Sensex fell 388.19 points or 0.49% to 78,154.25 and the CNX Nifty was down by 112.10 points or 0.46% to 24,471.70. 

Some of the important factors in trade: 

India’s growth to slow down to 6.6% in FY27 amid high inflation: Fitch Group company BMI, in its report on Asia-Pacific, has projected that India’s growth to slow to 6.6 per cent in FY27, from 7.7 per cent in FY 2025-26 (April-March), as the boost to the economy from last year’s GST reforms wanes and inflation remains elevated, averaging 5.4 per cent.  

Govt raises Rs 45,306 crore disinvestment, asset monetisation in FY26: The Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary has informed that the government's combined mop-up from disinvestment and asset monetisation stood at Rs 45,306 crore in the financial year 2025-26 (FY26), exceeding the Revised Estimates. 

India's unemployment rate stays almost flat in April-June: The Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI) said the pace of joblessness as well as the ratio of workers' population in India stayed almost flat year-on-year during the April-June quarter of this fiscal, reflecting no sign of expansion or contraction in the country's job market.