Crisil Ratings in its report has said that Rainfall Distortion Index (RDI) records a deficiency score of 14.4 as of September 4, 2026 making this the most spatially distorted monsoon in a decade. In the same period last year RDI recorded a surplus score of 18.7. Crisil’s RDI confirms a highly uneven spatial distribution of rainfall across kharif-growing regions, making this the most distorted monsoon in a decade. However, the distortion remains somewhat lower than in 2014 and 2015, when rainfall deficiencies were broadly comparable. It noted that September is forecast to witness below-normal rainfall. Although sowing has progressed well, it does not mean the crop sector is out of danger. The focus of concern has shifted from acreage to yields, and crop incomes are likely to moderate as a result.
The renewed weakening in rainfall during August, coupled with expectations of a deficient September, could pose risks to the upcoming rabi season. If rainfall deficits persist, weather anomalies, including elevated temperatures, could extend into the winter cropping season, weakening the buffers that have so far helped support rural incomes and demand.
Rabi crops are sown after the southwest monsoon recedes. While the northeast monsoon supports some rain-fed cultivation, a significant part of rabi production depends on the soil moisture, groundwater, reservoir levels and irrigation resources replenished during the southwest monsoon. The rabi season accounts for roughly half of India’s foodgrain production. Wheat constitutes about 70% of rabi output, while rice, coarse cereals and pulses account for around 10% each. More than 60% of pulse production, largely gram, and nearly 70% of jowar cultivation take place during this season, making rabi crop prospects critical for agricultural output and food security.
