The rating agency, Crisil Ratings in its latest report has said that India's natural diamond industry is projected to generate revenues of $14.8-15.2 billion in the current fiscal, indicating a largely flat performance compared with the previous year. This reflects an uneven recovery in global demand, albeit a stabilisation as against a declining trend seen in the last 3 fiscals.
As per the report, resilient domestic demand should cushion weakness in exports, while lab-grown diamonds (LGDs) continue to reshape entry-level demand even as natural stones retain their premium appeal. Although profitability will remain under pressure and working-capital requirements elevated, supply discipline and prudent financial management should help keep credit profiles stable.
The report further noted that the domestic market, which accounted for less than 15% of industry revenues in fiscal 2024, now contributes nearly a quarter of overall sales, reducing the industry's reliance on a handful of export markets. Domestic revenues are projected to grow 12-15% this fiscal, supported by organised retail expansion, rising consumer aspirations and premiumisation. In contrast, exports are expected to decline 5-7% to around $11.5 billion amid subdued jewellery demand in the key markets of US and China.