According to the industry body Assocham, India’s trade with Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) nations is likely to decline by 15 percent if the prevailing political turmoil between Ukraine and Russia escalates and stretches over a longer period of time. At present Ukraine is India’s second largest trading partner in the region after Russia and is also the gateway for country’s exports to a number of other CIS countries.
Assocham study found that trade between India and the CIS countries declined by over eight percent during April-January’ FY14 in the current fiscal adding that India's bilateral trade with Ukraine during the reported period will be around $2 billion facing a shortfall of about 36 percent as compared to the last fiscal year. On sector front, industry body stated that pharmaceuticals and electrical machinery industry could get hit the most on account of the current turmoil as these are the top exporters to the CIS region.
Ongoing political turmoil between Ukraine and Russia would also prove a setback to the recent efforts being taken by Commerce Ministry to promote exports to former members of the erstwhile Soviet Union. Ministry had decided to organize 14 India shows in the next 14 months in the key countries of CIS to enhance exports. During April-January’FY14, value of exports increased by 5.71% to $257.09 billion from a year earlier. Prevailing turmoil is also likely to impact India’s imports as Ukraine is an important supplier of edible oil, petroleum products and fertiliser to India.
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