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IMF projects India’s economy to grow by 5.4% in FY15; presses for continued hawkish monetary stance

09 Apr 2014 Evaluate

In a development which should bring some cheer to the policymakers battling to restore faltering growth in Asia's third-largest economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India's economy to grow by 5.4% in 2014-15 and 6.4% in 2015-16 on the back of strengthening global growth, improving export competitiveness and implementation of recently approved investment projects.

IMF in its biannual World Economic Outlook however pointed that next government, most likely to be a coalition led by business-friendly reformer Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), could face the double whammy of higher interest rates and spending restrictions.

It further reiterated that continued hawkish monetary stance may be warranted for a durable reduction in inflation and inflation expectations. It underscored that consumer price inflation (CPI) continued to remain an important challenge but was expected to move onto a downward trajectory.

On the public finances, which were badly strained last year leading to a crash in the rupee, it warned that the continued fiscal consolidation was essential to lower macroeconomic im-balances.

A reiteration of January forecast is an indication that IMF's stance on Indian economy has not changed in the last three months, even as global investors have bought Indian shares in the hope of the economy doing better. In the just-concluded fiscal year, IMF expects the economy to expand 4.4 per cent, according to its World Economic Outlook, which urged more economic reforms

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