Bond yields edge higher post March inflation hike to three-month high

15 Apr 2014 Evaluate

Pre WPI Scenario:

Bond yields edged higher as traders made room for upcoming Rs 20,000 crore debt sale on Thursday in a holiday-shortened trading week. Further, uncertainty ahead of both wholesale and consumer price inflation later in the day also pressured bonds. On the macro-front, the month-on-month Consumer price index (CPI) for March is expected around 8.2 percent versus 8.1 percent and the wholesale price index (WPI) is seen higher at 5.2 percent

On the global front, U.S. Treasuries yields rose on Monday as stocks gained on the better-than-expected retail sales data, but the 10-year U.S. Treasury note still at 2.65 percent late on Monday, not far from a six-week low of 2.603 percent hit in that session. Meanwhile, brent crude futures fell below $109 a barrel on Tuesday after hitting a six-week high in the previous session as investors looked ahead to a meeting in Geneva that they hoped would bring a political resolution to the crisis in Ukraine.

The yields on new 10 year Government Stock 2023 were trading 5 basis points up at 8.99% from its previous close of 8.94% on Friday

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were trading 2 basis points at 8.52% from its previous close of 8.50% on Friday.

The Government of India has announced the sale (re-issue) of four dated securities for Rs 20,000 crore on April 17, 2014, including (i) 8.35% Government Stock 2022 for a notified amount of Rs 5000 crore, (ii) 8.24% Government Stock 2027 for a notified amount of Rs 9,000 crore, (iii) 9.20% Government Stock 2030 for a notified amount of Rs 3000 crore and lastly, (iv) 9.23% Government Stock 2043 for a notified amount of Rs 3000 crore respectively.

The Reserve Bank of India has announced the auction of 91 and 364 days Government of India Treasury Bills for notified amount of Rs 9,000 and Rs 6000 crore respectively. The auction will be conducted on April 16, 2014 using 'Multiple Price Auction' method.

Post WPI Scenario:

Bond yields hardened after the annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, edged higher to 5.70% from multi month low at 4.68% (provisional) in month of February, 2014 and as compared to 5.65%during the corresponding month of the previous year.

The yields on new 10 year Government Stock 2023 hardened up to 9.02% from its previous close of 8.94% on Friday.

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