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From last six to seven months WPI inflation in the economy has been around 9% on an average. The WPI inflation numbers for month of May 2011 is disappointing for every segment in the economy. This higher-than-expected increase in inflation without diesel, kerosene and cooking gas prices hike. Oil ministry is trying hard to reduce public sector oil marketing companies’ revenue losses and a price hike in remaining petroleum products is likely to take place. The present economic scenarios in the economy are making obvious for RBI’s 25 basis point hike in its key policy rates.
According to data released by the government today, WPI inflation in March this year has been revised upward to 9.68 % from the provisional 9.04 %. This upward revision is more than the market expectations.
The high headline inflation been above 9 % on an average from last six months, the manufacturing inflation going above 7% is serious concern for the nation’s sustainable development, this increase shows that the inflationary pressures are high despite the central banks aggressive monetary standing. With this elevated inflation, RBI is likely to go for 25 basis point hike.
According to the data released by the ministry of commerce and industry, the WPI inflation in the country stood at 9.06% in May 2011 against 8.66% on the previous month. This increase in inflation was on account of manufacturing inflation which have increased more than 2% from November 2010. On Y-O-Y bases, there is moderation is primary articles, food articles and fuel and power by 11.3%, 8.37% and 12.32% respectively. But the manufacturing sector show record increase of 7.27%, which is going to pinch hard to the industry and economy at large.
Looking at the different segments of WPI inflation, it is clearly visible that the May inflation is driven by higher manufacturing goods price which increased 7.27% (Y-O-Y) as against to 6.18% for last month. The manufacturing sector accounts for around 65% of wholesale price index. The index for manufacturing sector rose by 1% to 137.2 from 135.8 for the last month.
Within the primary articles stood at 11.3% (Y-O-Y) as against 12.05% of last month. On Month-on-Month the index for this segment rose by 0.3% to 192.1 (provisional) from 191.6 (Provisional) for the last month. The index for food articles rose by 1.6% to 186.5 (provisional) from 183.5 (provisional) for the previous month. On Y-o-Y food articles stood to 8.37% as against 8.71% of last month. The index for ‘Non-Food Articles’ declined by 4.4% to 184.5 (provisional) from 192.9 (provisional).
Finally the index for the fuel and power which has weight of almost 15% in the WPI stood at 12.32 % (Y-O-Y). the index of fuel and power rose by 0.3% to 160.4% (provisional) from 159.9 (provisional) for the previous month due to mainly higher prices of lubricants (5%), petrol, light diesel oil and bitumen (4% each), furnace oil and lignite (2% each) and aviation turbine fuel (1%). However, the prices of coke (6%) declined. The petrol which account for almost 1% of the WPI saw almost 27% (Y-O-Y) increase in May. The huge jump in price is mainly because of increase in price of petrol by Public sector Oil marketing companies, in May OMCs had increase petrol prices by 8.6%.
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Built on more than 15 years of equity research, our framework combines quality assessment, intrinsic value estimation, and a sensible margin-of-safety approach.
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MoneyWorks4Me rating and ranking of funds for SIP is available to subscribers only. Moneyworks4Me is not a rating and
ranking agency, however it is required that users have a way of selecting funds and building a Portfolio. The method used by it are described below to enable users to understand the logic behind the rating and ranking Subscriber will find more details on this in the
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MoneyWorks4Me rates and ranks mutual funds based on the following data-driven system:
Performance Consistency: This is measure based on whether the fund has beaten the benchmark index consistently. For
this we compare the 3-year rolling returns of the fund with the benchmark for a minimum of 5 years and preferable 10
years. The period of rolling is one month and holding period is 3 years. Fund are color-coded Green on Performance when
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Quality of Portfolio Holding: Moneyworks4Me has color-coded stocks as Green, Orange and Red based on whether the
company's performance has generated a ROCE above a threshold level (cost of capital) over 10 years (minimum 6 years) and
generated positive Free Cash Flow. For Banks it checks whether ROE is greater than 15% and sales has grown over previous
year. Stocks that perform consistently on these combined metrics are color-coded Green (min score 14 out of 20), Orange
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Fund are color-coded Green provided the portfolio has 70% holding in Green stocks but not more than 20% in Red stocks.
Funds with more than 20% Red stocks in the portfolio are color-coded Red. The rest are Orange funds
Funds ranking in screeners: Performance Consistency and Quality are two parameters used for ranking funds for SIP. The
ranking as follows GG, GO, GR, OG, OO, OR, RG, RO and RR.
With the same color-coded funds, the one with the higher Average 3-year rolling returns (over 5 to 10 years), the number
that appears in the Performance tag, ranks higher.
Here is the summary:
The third tag Upside Potential is not relevant for SIP. It is relevant for lumpsum investments in Mutual Funds.
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Q : Quality of Holding Q Very Good
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*Number is average 3 year rolling returns
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