Rating agency ICRA expects RBI not to ease monetary policy rates and extend its status quo stance until at least early-2015, on the likelihood of a below-average monsoon making it difficult containing inflation at the targeted 8% by next January. This, in turn would dampen a revival in the other sectors of the economy. In spite of this, India's GDP growth is expected to pick up to up to 5.5% in the current fiscal year (2014-15) as per the rating agency’s estimate.
In ICRA’s view, expectation of below-average rainfall in conjunction with the structural factors that exert stickiness on food and non-food CPI inflation would make it challenging for the RBI to contain CPI inflation below 8% by next January. It has further ruled out a broad-based investment revival until there is a satisfactory resolution of concerns, such as sector-specific issues including fuel linkages for power; high leverage levels and tight liquidity of the developers.
It also expressed the need to satisfactorily resolve the concerns on the asset quality of banks, and a stable political outcome emerging after the Parliamentary election process. Overall, ICRA expects GDP growth to improve somewhat to 5.0-5.5% in 2014-15, factoring in a mild improvement in manufacturing growth and a pickup in investment activity in the second half of FY15.
Based on expectations of real GDP growth over 5%, ICRA expects bank deposit growth during FY15 to be in the range of 12.75-13.50% and moderate credit growth in FY15, with retail loans being the focus area of banks.
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