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  3. Rupee cools off from ten months high; ends flat ahead of exit polls

Rupee cools off from ten months high; ends flat ahead of exit polls

12 May 2014 Evaluate

Indian rupee after appreciating to ten months high and cooling from thereof, ended flat on Monday ahead of the crucial exit polls, which most likely would show the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning a majority in the country's elections. Dollar demand by state-run banks on speculated RBI’s intervention and bit of caution ahead of the crucial Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data and Industrial Production (IIP) data due later in the session, the latest one before the RBI’s next monetary policy on June 3, mainly weighed on the sentiment of Indian currency, besides weak regional counterparts. Central bank likely started to buy dollars starting at the day's low of 59.51, its weakest level since July 29, to prevent the pair from weakening excessively on the back of foreign fund inflows.

However, its slide was restricted on account of local equities surge to record high level and better than expected trade deficit data which was the first piece of good news for the economy in new financial year. Reversing two months of decline, India's exports grew 5.26% in dollars terms in April 2014 from a year ago, raising hopes that the improvement in the Current Account Deficit (CAD) in the last financial year will continue in the New Year. Meanwhile, on the global front, euro started the week on a steadier footing, looking to comments by European Central Bank officials and a flow of data for fresh direction after two straight sessions of losses.

Finally the rupee ended at 60.05, almost unchanged from its previous close of 60.04 on Friday. The currency touched a high and low of 60.10 and 59.53 respectively. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) reference rate for the dollar stood at 59.72 and for Euro stood at 82.22 on May 12, 2014. While, the RBI’s reference rate for the Yen stood at 58.60, the reference rate for the Great Britain Pound (GBP) stood at 100.8166. The reference rates are based on 12 noon rates of a few select banks in Mumbai.

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