May CPI Inflation eases to three month low at 8.28%

13 Jun 2014 Evaluate

In yet another encouraging development, provisional annual inflation rate based on all India general Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Combined) eased more than expected at 8.28% in May from its three months high figure of 8.59% in April.

CPI numbers of May 2014 for Rural, Urban and Combined stood at 141.3, 138.1 and 139.9 respectively. The corresponding provisional inflation rates for rural and urban areas for May 2014 stood at 8.86% and 7.55% as compared to 9.17% and 7.69% respectively in the previous month. 

In a new addition, the Consumer Food Price Indices (CFPI) was released, which for rural, urban and combined stood at 143.9, 142.0 and 143.3 respectively for May 2014. Further, the provisional annual inflation rate based on all India CFPI (combined) for the month of May, 2014 on point to point basis (May 2014 over May 2013) also eased at 9.56% as compared to 9.83% (final) for previous month of April 2014. While, the corresponding provisional inflation rates for rural and urban areas for May 2014 stood at 10.27%and 7.98% respectively as compared to 0.53% and 8.35% respectively in April ,2014.

Food prices for consumers rose at 9.40% in last month from a year earlier, lower than April’s 9.66% rise.  The Provisional annual inflation rates of May 2014 for Rural and Urban in respect of ‘food and beverages’ stood at 10.04% and 7.89% compared to 10.45% and 8.24% respectively in April, 2014. Additionally, Provisional annual inflation rates (Combined) for Fuel and light; Clothing, bedding and footwear stood at 5.07% and 8.86% respectively for the month under review. 

Consumer inflation has been averaging nearly 10% for the past two years even though economic growth has been stuck below 5%. However, the latest data, which strengthens the case for worst now being behind us, is likely to offer some cheer for new Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which has listed fighting inflation, particularly food inflation, as his topmost priority. This would also prompt Reserve Bank of India to slash rates in its next monetary policy in August, 2014, provided the good news flow continues.

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