Bond yields continue to trade lower post RBI hikes its key policy rates by 25bps

16 Jun 2011 Evaluate

Pre food inflation and RBI’s mid-quarter monetary Policy Review Scenario:

Indian bond yields were trading lower tracking a drop in U.S. yields overnight, but the trade was pretty range bound as the traders preferred staying the sidelines ahead of the central bank's policy announcement and weekly food Inflation data around noon. The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to nudge its key repo rate up by 25 basis points citing surging inflation, but is expected to keep off from a larger rate hike given growth concerns. On the global front, however, the U.S. Treasury prices fell slightly in Asia on Thursday, with investors taking profits after a sharp rally the previous day on weak U.S. manufacturing data and as concerns about Greece attracted fresh safe-haven demand for U.S. debt. Meanwhile, oil rebounded on Thursday, with Brent up 1.4 percent, after the previous day's sharp drop and a falling dollar created buying opportunities against a backdrop of tumbling U.S. crude inventories and uncertainty over OPEC output.

The yields on 10-year benchmark, the 7.80%-2021 was trading lower at 8.33% from its previous close of 8.40% on Wednesday.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were higher at 7.77% from its previous close of 7.87% on Wednesday.

Post food inflation and RBI’s mid-quarter monetary Policy Review Scenario:

With the domestic inflation persisting at uncomfortable levels, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has furthered its aggressive stance against the rampant inflation and hiked repo rate and reverse repo rate by 25 basis points each to 7.50% and 6.50% respectively, in its mid-quarter policy review, which is in line with broader market expectations. While, the central bank has left cash reserve ratio, which is the amount of funds that banks have to keep with RBI, unchanged at 6%.

Meanwhile, India's food Inflation after soaring to its two moth’s high level in the previous week has eased marginally to 8.96% on annual basis during week-ended June 04, 2011. Thus, with this, food inflation has remained under the much-dreaded double digit mark for the 12th straight week. According to the data released by the ministry of commerce and industry on Thursday, food price index eased marginally to 8.96% on annual basis during week-ended June 4, from an annual rise of 9.01% recorded in the previous week

The yields on 10-year benchmark, the 7.80%-2021 was trading lower at 8.34% from its previous close of 8.40% on Wednesday.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were lower at 7.75% from its previous close of 7.87% on Wednesday.

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