Foreign brokerage Goldman Sachs expects new Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to peg the fiscal deficit target for FY15 at 4.3%, up from the 4.1% stated by his predecessor P Chidambaram, but lower than previous estimate of 4.8%.
It highlighted that previous government's expectation on tax revenue growth of 21% was too optimistic. Expectation of three years of high fiscal deficit for the country was one of the reasons as to why foreign rating agencies threatened to downgrade its sovereign rating to junk.
The foreign brokerage further emphasized that to achieve the fiscal consolidation in the medium term, the government would have to return to fiscal rules, tax consumption instead of production, broaden the income tax base by creating a new Internal Revenue Service, and reduce fertiliser subsidies, among other things.
Goldman Sachs opined that government would shift its focus on spending from consumption to capital expenditure in its Budget. It further underscored that to boost growth, the government needs to focus more on capital spending, especially infrastructure, relative to subsidies and it was on these ground that it expected an increase in capex relative to the interim budget.
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