Trading for New Year may start on a cautious note

02 Jan 2012 Evaluate
The Indian markets disappointed on the last trading session of the year and after a positive start could not hold the gains and lost about half a percent by the end to remain one of the worst performing markets of 2011. Today, the start is likely to be flat to cautious as there is no any major cue to lift the markets on the first trading day of 2012. Traders will be eyeing the money market as well, as rupee ended the year with its biggest annual loss since 2008 as foreign investors took their money out on growing concerns about India’s current account deficit. However, the markets may get some respite as there is buzz that government will allow overseas individual investors to directly buy local equities to boost capital inflows and reduce volatility in the stock market. Currently, individual investors can only invest in Indian shares through so-called participatory notes. Auto companies will be buzzing with the announcement of monthly sales numbers for December. Most of the car makers seemed to have ended 2011 with sales growth. Tata Motors sold 29,417 passenger vehicles in December, up 27% from a year earlier. Mahindra & Mahindra's sales growth in passenger vehicles segment was up 24% to 19,341 units in December.

However, there is not good news for FMCG companies as an Assocham study has said that weak rupee and rising input costs may force FMCG companies to increase prices of their products in 2012, which in turn is likely to hit sales during the year by about 10-15 per cent.

The US markets lost their way on the last trading day of the year, all the major indices were down by around half a percent mainly on European concern, though the trading remained volatile but traders were optimistic that New Year will bring cheers for the economy. Most of the Asian markets are closed today after posting their first annual decline in three years on sovereign-debt concerns in Europe and the US. Some of them who are trading have made a mixed start.

Back home, Indian benchmark equity indices concluded the last trading session of calendar year 2011 on a disappointing note and registered the first annual fall in three years. The markets witnessed sharp yearend profit booking in the dying hours of trade which dragged the equity indices close to two percent from near intraday high levels to the lowest levels in the session. Though, the selling pressure remained unabated for the fourth straight session and dragged the key gauges by half a percent on Friday however, the indices suffered an even brutal laceration of a gargantuan twenty five percent for the whole year, making Indian markets the worst performer among the BRIC nations. However, investors overlooked the largely positive trends from Asian peers where stocks closed in green zone as a slew of encouraging US economic reports like the Chicago-area factory PMI, pending November home sales and US weekly jobless claims data buttressed sentiments in the region. Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a positive start following supportive leads from Asian markets were sentiments were optimistic in thin trades triggered by a slew of encouraging economic reports from the US. The bourses soon capitalized on the initial momentum and climbed to highest point in the session. Thereafter, the indices showed range bound movements through the morning trades but the optimism petered out in mid noon trades after the European market opening. There appeared no signs of recovery thereafter as yearend profit booking ensured that the bourses extend the declining streak for the fourth straight session. Moreover, the broader markets bucked the pessimistic trend and settled with marginal gains, outperforming their larger peers. On the BSE sectoral space, the PSU counter remained the top gainer in the space with close to a percent gains followed by the defensive-Healthcare- index which gained about half a percent. On the flipside, the Oil & Gas pocket got severely punished in the session with around one and half a percent cuts while rate sensitive counters like Realty and Banking too were not spared by investors. Finally, the BSE Sensex lost 89.01 points or 0.57% to settle at 15,454.92, while the S&P CNX Nifty declined by 21.95 points or 0.47% to close at 4,624.30.

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