Markets likely to extend last sessions bounce back

03 Jan 2012 Evaluate
The Indian markets made some last hour recovery to snap the first session of New Year on a positive note. The consumer durables and oil & gas sectors mainly pulled the markets higher. Today, the start is likely to be good as the regional cues are supportive, though volatility is likely to persist but there is good news to support the markets, the Purchasing Managers’ Index in India rose to 54.2, the most in six months, from 51 in November. However, HSBC and Markit have said that India’s economic growth will be constrained by higher borrowing costs and global economic weakness. Though, there will be somberness in the PSU oil companies’ trade as it has been reported that the oil ministry on Monday did not allowed state-run fuel retailers to hike petrol price. The retailers wanted to raise petrol price by about Rs 2 per litre in wake of depreciating rupee and rising import cost. Also, the export related companies will play low as the country’s exports rose at their slowest pace in nearly two years in November. Data released by the commerce and industry showed exports grew 3.87% to $22.3 billion in November, 2011, compared to $21.49 billion in the same year-ago month, while imports were up 24.5% at $35.92 billion. In November, 2010, imports aggregated $28.84 billion. There will be jitters in iron ore companies too, after the government hiked the ad valorem duty on iron ore exports to 30 per cent from 20 per cent.  


The US markets remained closed on Monday in observance of New Year’s day. The Asian markets have made a jubilant start and most of the indices are up by over a percent in the early trade. There is optimism in the markets as China’s manufacturing index rose in December to 50.3 percent, in a sign that the world’s fastest-growing major economies are withstanding Europe’s debt crisis.


Back home, the domestic benchmark equity indices managed to gather some impetus in final hours of the session to snap the first trading day of 2012 on an optimistic note with moderate gains of under half a percent. At one point in time frontline indices drifted below the psychological 4,600 (Nifty) and 15,400 (Sensex) levels for a brief period as the initial optimism fizzled out after investors morale got dampened on getting a mixed bag of monthly sales numbers from major Automobile companies. However optimism sustained in the session as reports showed that the government took a bold step to allow foreign individual investors, pension funds and trusts to directly invest in Indian equities. Sentiments also got support from reports that showed that despite uncertainty looming over global economic outlook, India registered a 36 percent increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow during the January-October period of 2011. Besides, the upside for domestic bourses was also capped as the defensive-FMCG pocket plunged by around a percent as a survey conducted by ASSOCHAM opined that the increase in cost burden might be shifted to the consumers which will dampen sales by about 10-15%. Earlier on Dalal Street, the benchmark got off to a promising start after four straight sessions sell-off as government’s decision to allow QFIs to directly invest in the local markets boosted sentiments. After trading in the positive terrain for some time the indices lost steam and went ahead to touch the lowest point in the session in early noon trades. However, the psychological 4,600 and 15,400 levels proved as strong supports for the key gauges as they rebounded from the intraday lows. Thereafter the frontline indices gathered momentum following optimistic leads from European markets which helped the bourses to snap four session downtrend and settle around high point of the day. Eventually, the NSE’s 50-share broadly followed index - Nifty gained over a quarter percent to close above the crucial 4,600 levels while Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index - Sensex added sixty three points and closed above the psychological 15,500 mark. Moreover, the broader markets failed to show any fervor and settled on a flat note, underperforming their larger peers. On the BSE sectoral space, the Consumer Durable counter remained the top gainer in the space with over a percent gains followed by the Oil & Gas index which too ended with similar gains. Finally, the BSE Sensex gained 63.00 points or 0.41% to settle at 15,517.92, while the S&P CNX Nifty rose by 12.45 points or 0.27% to close at 4,636.75.

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