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  3. IMD downgrades rain forecast, rules out drought

IMD downgrades rain forecast, rules out drought

13 Aug 2014 Evaluate

Despite the revival of monsoon recently, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) downgraded the rain forecast for monsoon season to 87 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) from 93 percent but ruled out any possibility of drought. The downgrade was done due to shortage of rain during June, which was 43 percent of the LPA.

The IMD notified that there is 68 percent probability for the season rainfall over the country as a whole to be deficient (less than 90 percent of LPA). The probability for below normal rainfall (90-96 per cent of LPA) is 24 per cent. IMD further stated that Northwest India is likely to be worst hit this year and is expected to receive 76 percent of rainfall, while Central India is expected to receive 89 percent, the Southern peninsula 87 percent and Northeast India is likely to receive 93 percent of the rainfall.

Secretary of Minister of State for Earth Science Shailesh Nayak has stated that monsoon picked up in July to 90 percent of rainfall and for the second half of August and September, it is expected to increase to 95 per cent. Despite this, the shortfall in June was too much to match the prediction.

Poor monsoon can impact Indian economic growth as the agriculture sector, which comprises around 15 percent of the GDP, is mainly depended upon the monsoon rains. Around 55 percent arable land in the country depends entirely on rain for irrigation. Timely and normal monsoon is essential for rabi season (winter crops) and it also raises the water table and moisture content in the soil. Further, a poor monsoon can impact India’s exports, stoke inflation particularly food inflation and lead to lower demand for products ranging from cars to consumer goods. 

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