Indian economy to grow by 7.8% in 2012: IMF

18 Jun 2011 Evaluate

The International Monetary Fund on June 17, 2011 projected that the Indian economy will grow by 8.2% in 2011 unchanged from its growth forecast made in April and 7.8% in 2012. On expressing concern over the slow global recovery IMF said, “Activity is slowing down temporarily, and downside risks have increased again. The global expansion remains unbalanced. Growth in many advanced economies is still weak, considering the depth of the recession”.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) update the multilateral lender said, “In addition, the mild slowdown observed in the second quarter of 2011 is not reassuring. Growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong. Overall, the global economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3 percent in the first quarter, and forecasts for 2011-12 are broadly unchanged, with offsetting changes across various economies.”

However, greater-than-anticipated weakness in U.S. activity and renewed financial volatility from concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in the euro area periphery pose greater downside risks. Risks also draw from persistent fiscal and financial sector imbalances in many advanced economies, while, signs of overheating are becoming increasingly apparent in many emerging and developing economies, the IMF said in its WEO update.

The IMF’s latest projection has come at a time when the Indian economy is fighting with high inflation that threatens to slowdown growth of the Asia’s third largest economy. Inflation in Indian economy is hovering at elevated level which crossed 9% mark in the month of May.

The Indian government has expressed its concerns over the moderation in GDP growth for the current financial year, in the budget Indian government has projected Indian economy to grow around 9%. Government on June 17 said that tight monetary policy regime by the RBI to tackle inflationary pressures, is expected to hurt its economic growth. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said, 'The monetary policy has been gradually tightened... Monetary measures may end up moderating the growth if they have to be persisted for an extended period of time.'

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