The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), in its annual statement, has stated that Indian economy will grow at a rate of 5.6 percent in 2014. However, the council noted that if India maintains status quo in terms of fiscal policies, the gross domestic product growth rate would increase only to about 6 percent by 2020-24, lower than 9.4 percent growth recorded in 2006-07.
The report suggested that with the implementation of industrial policies to promote private investment, regulation of finance and capital controls and development-oriented trade agreements, India’s GDP growth could touch 7.9 percent in future. After two years of sluggish growth, Indian economy has shown sign of recovery and grew by 5.7% during Q1FY15 as compared to 4.7% growth recorded in Q1FY14.
On global front, the UNCTAD forecasted that developing economies are likely to repeat the performance of previous years, growing at between 4.5 and 5 percent in 2014. The UNCTAD stated that China would continue to outperform India’s economic growth and project a growth of 6.7 percent for 2020-24 in a business-as-usual scenario.
The report also warned the developing countries about the risk of pursuing export-led growth strategies and suggested that developing countries should focus on domestic and regional demands for continued and sustainable growth. Furthermore, slowdown in developed countries and a reduced elasticity of their demand for imports from developing countries could hurt growth of countries pursuing export-led growth strategies.
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