Putting further questions on the ability of the Modi-government to meet the capital requirements of India’s public sector banks (PSBs), International credit rating agency Moody's has estimated that state run banks in India will need to raise funds in the range of $26- $37 billion over the next 4-5 years to meet Basel III compliance norms, which is required to be fully implemented by 2019.
These estimates just cover about 11 state run banks that the agency rates cover, which represents 62% of net loans in the banking system and are based on assumptions that there would be a moderate recovery in the economy and a gradual decline in the non-performing loans from the current levels.
In a report titled, 'Indian banks could need $26-$37 billion in external capital for Basel III compliance', Moody unveiled that a significant part of the required capital of around $13-$15 billion - could be in the form of additional tier I (AT1) capital. As per the Basel-III norms, banks need to have minimum equity capital adequacy ratio of 7% and Common Equity Tier-1 (CET1) capital of 5.5%. In addition, banks will also need to build a 2.5% capital conservation buffer to be used in bad times.
The agency in its report has warned that Indian state-run banks would barely manage to meet the minimum capital requirements and anticipated that the government, which is struggling to reduce its budget deficit, would find it difficult to raise capital quickly in the current environment due to low bank valuations.
According to Moody’s, low capital levels remain a key credit weakness for the public-sector banks and further added that weak asset quality has depressed public-sector banks' profitability and ability to generate capital internally, leaving them reliant on periodic capital injections from the government. A study by the ratings firm of the banks it rates noted that in the three years between FY'11 and FY'14, annual loan growth at rated public-sector banks averaged 18%, while pre-provision income declined to 2.6% of risk weighted assets or RWA from 3.3% of RWA.
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