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  3. Manufacturing PMI in September expands at weakest pace in 9 months

Manufacturing PMI in September expands at weakest pace in 9 months

01 Oct 2014 Evaluate

Business activity in Indian manufacturing sector, although improving for the eleventh consecutive month, expanded at its weakest pace in nine months, i.e. since December 2013, for the month of September on account of slow growth in new orders combined with slowdown in output. The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a headline index designed to measure the overall health of the manufacturing sector, fell to 51.0 in the month of September from 52.4 in August. The reading however remained above the crucial 50 mark for the eleventh consecutive month that separates growth from contraction and was indicative of modest improvement in operating conditions. Indicative of weak demand, the new orders sub index fell to 51.3 from 54.5, the steepest fall in 18 months. Growth of new business was broad-based by sector, with the sharpest rise noted in capital goods. By sub-sector, the strongest expansion occurred in the intermediate goods category

Meanwhile, purchasing activity rose in line with production and new orders, as the rate of expansion slowed to a four-month low in September. Subsequently, input stocks increased fractionally in September. In contrast, Indian manufacturers reduced their post-production inventories, marking the end of a year-long period of accumulation. However, in an encouraging sign, inflationary pressure from both inputs and outputs eased in September. While, the Input costs continued to rise at a solid pace, the rate of cost inflation decelerated sharply from the prior month. 

The survey further points that though the rate of cost inflation decelerated sharply, which is the mildest since May, 2013, the central bank is likely to look beyond the near term moderation and keep policy rates elevated so as to reign in entrenched inflation expectations. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) aims to lower retail inflation to 6% by January 2016 and the elevated inflation and risks of a spiral in food and fuel prices prompted RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan to keep interest rates unchanged on Tuesday.

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