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  3. CII Business Confidence Index shows growth for second consecutive quarter

CII Business Confidence Index shows growth for second consecutive quarter

07 Oct 2014 Evaluate

Indicating sharp improvement in the business climate of the country for the second consecutive quarter the CII Business Confidence Index (CII-BCI) for July-September quarter FY15 shot up to 57.4, up from 53.7 in April-June quarter and 49.9 in Jan-March quarter this year. During the same quarter last year, the index had touched the all-time low value of 45.7. The determination shown by Modi’s government at the Centre to provide an impetus to growth along with reviving the ‘feel good’ factor sent the business confidence index soaring for the second quarter in a row.

The CII’s 88th Business Outlook Survey is based on responses from over 150 industry members, majority of which i.e. 44% belong to large-scale sector, while medium scale companies comprise another 12 %. Around 38% and 6% respectively are from the small-scale and micro firms.

The  highest percentage of respondents, 41%, expect GDP in the current fiscal to expand by 5.0-5.5%, up from sub-5% growth witnessed in the last two years, while 30% respondents expect GDP to grow in a range of 5.5-6.0% in FY15. WPI Inflation has been estimated to average 5.5-6.5% in FY15 slightly higher, considering the likelihood of a sub-normal monsoon this year.

In a sign that economic recovery was sustainable, 46% of the surveyed businesses on the back of revival in domestic and global demand were contemplating new investment in the July-September quarter, whereas only 10% expected contraction. However, the survey also pointed that central bank played a very crucial role to maintain demand momentum.

Encouragingly, 77% of the respondents expect their sales to increase in the July-September quarter, much higher than 50% respondents in the previous quarter. Similarly, 49 per cent of the respondents expect their export orders to increase in July-September quarter compared to 39% respondents in the previous quarter.

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