Rebound in Nov IIP signals an end to the economic slowdown: Montek

12 Jan 2012 Evaluate

With India’s industrial production growth convalescing from a revised -4.7 percent in October to close to 6 percent in November, the Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia has taken the opportunity to affirm that this expectantly signals an end to the economic slowdown and exuded confidence that it would help improve the business sentiment in the country.

Ahluwalia stated that 'clearly, the industrial growth of almost 6 percent is a good change... I think it hopefully indicates that the slowdown in industry will basically come to an end during the third quarter of the financial year.' Along with the strong IIP numbers, a string of other recent encouraging developments from the macroeconomic front have made the Planning Commission Deputy Chairman hopeful that this must lead to improvement in sentiments over the next several weeks.

A slew of indicators like manufacturing and services PMI signaling expansion, the food inflation languishing in the negative terrain since the last fortnight of 2011, rupee strengthening to one month highs, declining bond yields and foreign direct investment surging around 56 percent in November 2011, have together signaled that India’s economic activity is re-gathering momentum.

Despite being hopeful that the encouraging IIP figures could signal an end to slowdown, the Deputy Chairman was of the belief that this will not change the whole picture for 2011-12 and that the GDP growth in current fiscal will be around 7 percent and not 8 percent but a lot depends on how the last quarter of the fiscal turns out to be.

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