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  3. NCAER lowers India’s GDP growth forecast to 5% for current fiscal

NCAER lowers India’s GDP growth forecast to 5% for current fiscal

05 Nov 2014 Evaluate

In its mid-year review of the economy, the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) has lowered India's GDP growth forecast to 5 percent for current fiscal from 5.7 percent projected earlier.

Unlike other forecasts, the NCAER revealed that the fundamentals of the economy remain weak with uncertain growth prospects.  The pace of growth shows signs of slowing down in the services sector and bank credit to the commercial sector has not picked pace and continues to languish. Further, the slowdown in the external economy, except the US, shows little growth prospects for the external sector, it added.  After recording a double-digit growth in May and June, export growth slowed down in subsequent months with a growth rate of just 2.73 percent in September.
 
Though weakening of inflation and the foreign direct investments (FDI) inflows to be redeeming features, Indian economic growth prospects will depend on factors such as the extent of damage on agriculture due to deficit rainfall and revival of the external economy, NCAER added. It projected agriculture growth at 2 percent in FY15 on account of the uneven distribution and the 17-per cent deficiency in rainfall. Industry growth is projected at 2.3 percent for current fiscal. The NCAER has also projected the Centre’s fiscal deficit at 4.3 percent of GDP against the budget target of 4.1 percent.

During the past two fiscal, Indian economic growth slowed down to below 5 percent. The factors like high interest rate and stubborn inflation, low investments and slow execution of infrastructure projects have impacted country’s economy growth.  However, during the first quarter of current fiscal India’s economy expanded by 5.7 percent as compared to 4.7 percent growth recorded in same quarter last year.

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