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OECD lowers Indian economic growth forecast to 5.4% for 2014

07 Nov 2014 Evaluate

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has lowered India's GDP growth forecast to 5.4% for this year from 5.7% projected earlier in September. Paris-based think tank, in its latest G20 economic outlook report, has revealed that global recovery continues at a moderate pace which could weigh on Indian economic growth prospect this year. However, growth will strengthen in India in coming year as investment picks up because of the improved political situation in the country.

The OECD expects the Indian economy to expand 6.4% next year and 6.6 % in 2016.  The report further added that pickup in growth after the sharp slowdown in 2012-13 will continue despite the tight monetary and fiscal stance. Further the factors like improved business sentiment resulting from reduced political uncertainty, deregulation of diesel and the government commitment to cut red tape are likely to boost economic growth.  The outlook also projects inflation to head lower in future.

Indian economic growth stayed below 5% for the second fiscal in a row at 4.7% during FY14. The factors like high interest rate and stubborn inflation, low investments and slow execution of infrastructure projects have impacted country’s economic growth.  However, the economy has shown signs of nascent recovery and expanded at its fastest pace in more than two years by 5.7% during the April-June quarter of current fiscal as compared to 4.7% growth recorded in same quarter last year.

On global front, the OECD has stated that global economic growth remains sluggish, but is expected to accelerate gradually if countries implement growth-supportive policies. According to the Outlook, global GDP growth is projected to reach at 3.3 % rate in 2014 and recover gradually to 3.7% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016.


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