In not so encouraging development, domestic ratings agency, India Ratings marginally revised down its economic growth estimate for 2014-15 fiscal to 5.6% since the agency lowered its industrial growth forecast to 4.6% against 5.1% earlier. India Ratings earlier underscored that it expects India’s GDP growth rate to be at 5.7% in 2014-15. The revised forecast from domestic rating agency is more or less in line with government’s and RBI’s estimates. Since, government expects the growth to come in 5.5-6% range, while RBI's median estimate stands at 5.5%.
Additionally, the rating agency also warned that government could slip on fiscal deficit front as it pegged final fiscal deficit print to be at 4.2% against the budget estimate of 4.1% despite slew of measures taken by the government, including 10% spending cut announced last week. In the first six months, fiscal deficit touched 83% of the target.
It highlighted that even though factors like declining oil subsidy on a fall in global crude prices were giving out positive signals, a slow growth in the tax revenues would result in the government over-shooting its 4.1 per cent target and we will close FY15 with a 4.2% gap.
On the flip side, the agency maintained the agricultural growth projection at 1.3% and revised up the growth projection for the services sector, which contributes over 65 percent to GDP, by 10 bps to 7.1%. On interest front, India Ratings said that it did not see RBI slashing rates at policy reviews on December 2, but could see that happening in coming February. So far, Governor Raghuram Rajan has kept the benchmark repo rate at 8% after three increases since taking over in September 2013.
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