Indian economy to grow at a subdued pace in 2012, 2013: UN report

18 Jan 2012 Evaluate

Indian economy is likely to grow at a subdued pace as per the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012, a report released by the UN. India’s economic growth is estimated to be 7.7% in 2012 and 7.9% in 2013, which is 0.5% lower than its earlier forecast. The revision in the growth rate is mainly on the back of global economic crisis.

The report, however, warned that the downside risks to this outlook have sharply increased in recent months and any failure to deal with sovereign debt problems in Europe and slowdown in United States trigger yet another global recession, India’s growth could be lower by another 0.5%.

The UN report said double-dip recession in the US and Europe would have a bearing on economic activity across South Asia, as the two nations are key export markets and the main source of tourism revenues for South Asia. As exports to Europe and the US make up 30% of India’s total exports. Exports have been slow lately with trade deficit gap widening to $133-billion during April-December 2011.

On the fiscal deficit, the report said, India is unlikely to reach its fiscal deficit target of 4.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) for 2011-12, as brought down tax revenues and disinvestment in state-owned entities has been put on hold. On the Reserve Bank’s monetary stance on inflation and ahead of its third quarterly review of the monetary policy on January 24, the report said, ‘the tide has started to turn towards supporting domestic demand’ apparently stressing the need for moving towards easy monetary policy.

The report gave a positive outlook for India’s job market and said that employment rates were likely to go up. However, it also stated that inflation would decline slowly in the South Asian region, averaging 9.1% in 2012 and 8% in 2013, mainly on the back of easing food and commodity prices, coupled with the impact of monetary tightening in Bangladesh and India.

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