Bond yields remain steady; weekly food inflation rose to 9.13%

23 Jun 2011 Evaluate

Pre Weekly Food Inflation Data Scenario:

Indian bond yields traded lower early on Thursday taking comfort from lower oil prices and soft US treasury yields in Asian trade, but the debt supply scheduled on June 24 was likely to prevent a sharp fall. In addition, traders were seen eyeing on weekly food and fuel inflation data expected around 11:30 a.m.

On the global front, US Treasury prices ended flat on Wednesday as the omission of any hint of new stimulus from the Federal Reserve offset worries over a Greek default, leaving little reason for traders to add or exit their bond holdings.

The yields on 10-year benchmark, the 7.80% - 2021 was at 8.23% from Wednesday's 8.25% on lower oil and U.S. Treasury yields.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swaps were also lower at 7.69% from Wednesday's 7.71%.

Government of India has announced the sale of three dated securities for Rs 12,000 crore on June 24, 2011. Government have announced the sale (re-issue) of (i) “7.59 percent Government Stock 2016” for a notified amount of `3,000 crore (nominal), (ii) “8.08 percent Government Stock 2022” for a notified amount of `6,000 crore (nominal) and (iii) “8.28 percent Government Stock 2032” for a notified amount of `3,000 crore (nominal) through price based auctions. The auctions will be conducted using uniform price method. The Reserve Bank of India at Mumbai will conduct the auctions on June 24, 2011.

Post Weekly Food Inflation Data Scenario:

Food inflation numbers ricocheted a week after showing some signs of moderation and have added to the pressure on Indian central bank. According to the data released by the ministry of commerce and industry, food price index rose to two month high of 9.13% for week ended June 11, from an annual rise of 8.96% recorded in the previous week.  However, the index for the ‘Food Article’ group rose by 1.5% to 191.3 (Provisional) from 188.4 (Provisional) for the last week because of increase in prices of fish-marine (5%), milk (4%), tea and poultry chicken (3% each), jowar and egg (2% each) and moong, fish-inland and fruits and vegetables (1% each).  The ‘Index for Primary Article’ which has weight of 20.12% in the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased by 0.8% to 198.1 (provisional) from 196.6 (provisional) for the last week. The Index for ‘Fuel and Power’ which has weight of 14.91% in WPI remained unchanged from its last week’s level of 159.9 (provisional) and annual rate of inflation for fuel and power, calculated on point to point basis, has also remained same at 12.84% from previous week.

The yields on 10-year benchmark, the 7.80% - 2021 was steady at 8.25% as traders were cautious ahead of the Rs 12,000 crore debt sale on Friday.

The benchmark five-year interest rate swap was up 1 basis point at 7.72% from its previous close of 7.71%.

 

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