Global credit rating agency Fitch, in its latest Global Economic Outlook, has highlighted that India will be the only BRIC country where growth picks up in 2014 to 5.6% and further accelerates to 6.5 % in 2015 and 6.8 % in 2016, owing to the government's reforms to improve the business environment.
After registering an average growth rate of 8% during FY08-FY12, Indian economic growth had slowed down to below 5% over the last two financial years. The factors like high interest rate and stubborn inflation, low investments and slow execution of infrastructure projects have impacted country’s economy growth. However, the economy has shown signs of nascent recovery and expanded at 5.5% during first half of this fiscal as compared to 4.9% in the same period of previous fiscal.
On RBI's monetary policy, Fitch stated that policy might become more accommodate in 2015 due to lower inflation, which would support GDP growth. A new monetary policy framework resulting from discussions between government and RBI could contribute to a credible low inflation environment in the future.
On global front, the rating agency noted that global growth is uneven, but it will strengthen in 2015 and 2016. As world recovery is increasingly dependent on the US growth engine, a buoyant US economy is the main engine of global growth. Fitch expects that China's slowdown is structural and GDP growth is likely to moderate to 7.3% in 2014, 6.8% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016.
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