The State Bank of India's newly launched SBI Composite Index has jumped 16% in December to 55.4, suggesting a strong revival in manufacturing activity in the country. The index value for the month of December is the highest in the past 20 months amid a turnaround in sentiment after Prime Minister Narendra Modi was elected to power. The SBI Composite Index tracks primarily manufacturing activity in the country and rivals the existing British lender HSBC's Purchasing Manager Index. The SBI planned to publish the indicator on monthly basis, which will track two months in advance the possible trends in official estimates.
The SBI Composite index has been developed on the basis of the bank’s internal loan portfolio, which mirrors the credit demand in the country, and other data sets available in public domain. With an aim to predict the phase of business cycles for the economy, this forward looking indicator takes into account detailed activity/traction in consumer spending, mining activity, interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, SBI lending and performance of various thematic indices. The index will help regulators, policy makers and market participants to identify the turning points in the manufacturing cycles in advance and adjust their investment or marketing strategy.
SBI Composite index captures two components of the manufacturing cycle, namely month-on-month and year-on-year growth. The two separate indices have been constructed on a scale of 0-100 and like HSBC Purchasing Manager Index, an index reading above 50 implies growth over the previous respective period and less than 50 would suggest a contraction over respective period. The SBI has notified that during the period 2007-2014, the SBI Composite Index predicts the direction correctly for 72% of times, while the directional predictability for PMI is stood around 50% for the same period.
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