November WPI data ebbs to over five year low at 0.00%

15 Dec 2014 Evaluate

Bolstering the case for rate cuts by RBI in upcoming monetary policy in February, the annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, easing for sixth straight month, ebbed to five and half year low figure 0.00% (provisionally) for the month of November, 2014 as compared to 1.77% for the previous month and 7.52% during the corresponding month of the previous year.

The figure was way below the expected numbers, for the month of September, 2014, the final Wholesale Price Index for ‘All Commodities’ and annual rate of inflation remained unchanged at its provisional level of 185.0 and 2.38% respectively. With this the official Wholesale Price Index for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 2004-05 = 100) for the month of November, 2014 declined by 1.3% to 181.5 (provisional) from 183.9 (provisional) for the previous month.

The sharp decline in WPI was mainly on account of sharp decline in inflation for ‘Fuel & Power’ group, followed by Inflation in Primary Articles. The index for ‘Fuel & Power’, which occupies 14.91% weightage in the overall index, declined by 5.4% to 199.3 (provisional) from 210.7 (provisional) for the previous month due to lower price of furnace oil (13%), high speed diesel oil (10%), aviation turbine fuel (8%), petrol (5%) and kerosene (3%).  Meanwhile, the index for Primary Articles, which occupies 20.12% weightage in overall index slid by 1.0% to 252.4 (provisional) from 255.0 (provisional) for the previous month.

Besides, Manufactured Products index, which occupies majority of 64.97% weightage in the overall WPI index, too lost 0.3% to 155.4 (provisional) from 155.8 (provisional) for the previous month mainly on the back of index for ‘Food Products’ group, which declined by 0.9% to 172.6 (provisional) from 174.2 (provisional) for the previous month.

The latest data further bolsters the case for rate cut by RBI in its upcoming bi-monthly monetary policy statement, which is scheduled on Tuesday, February 3, 2015 after record low CPI data and shockingly low IIP data. However, RBI in its previous monetary policy on December 2 also highlighted that the inflation reading for November, which will become available by mid-December is expected to soften further mainly on account of favourable base effect, which is likely to dissipate thereafter and in turn lift inflation from the current levels.

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