The overall sales volume of fertilisers improved by 3% y-o-y to 29.54 million tonnes (mt) during the first seven months of FY15, driven mainly by the healthy 17% expansion in sale of phosphatic and potassic (P&K) fertilizers to 13.3 mt. The P&K sales growth was driven by relatively low opening inventory levels vis-a-vis previous years and low base effect. Nonetheless, imports picked up during the second quarter resulting in a 21% jump in imported volumes of P&K fertilisers. The sales growth was despite drought in northern and north-western crop belts of Haryana, Punjab, UP and east-MP and regions of Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. Monsoon remained largely normal, albeit delayed in most other parts of the country.
On the other hand, urea sales declined by 7% during the same period to 16.24 mt. However, ICRA Research notes that the urea sales volume was almost equivalent to volumes seen in the corresponding period during FY12-FY13, implying that FY14 was somewhat of an aberration and sales remain at normal levels. The shrinkage in urea sales volumes has also been on account of lower imports and limited utilisation of Nagarjuna Fertilisers & Chemicals Ltd. plants during Q2 FY15.
ICRA notes that, Fertiliser sale volumes are likely to witness a y-o-y growth of 3-7% in FY15, with urea sales are expected to drop by 3-5% and P&K fertilisers likely to grow by 15-20%. The report further highlights that global urea prices have remained relatively stable in recent months. Trading activity has remained muted and prices continue to remain subdued at $ 325 per tonne (against average of $ 385 per tonne during FY11-FY13). Due to the low coal prices, China is estimated to continue to dominate global urea markets on account of its substantial surplus production, although Chinese exports of urea have been significantly low during year-till-date calendar 2014.
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