Amid reports of improving macro-economic fundamental of the country, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has highlighted that falling inflation and political stability have helped check the macroeconomic vulnerabilities. However, central bank flagged lower revenue mobilisation this fiscal as a major concern and pitched for structural reforms to reinforce investor confidence.
On inflation outlook, the RBI expects that CPI inflation over the next 12 months may hover around 6% if international crude prices remain at the current levels and monsoon next year turns out to be normal. The RBI targets to contain the CPI inflation at 8% by March 2015 and 6% by March 2016. Keeping inflation battle at the top of agenda, the RBI has kept interest rate unchanged at 8% since January 2014 despite industry and government urging it to cut the rate.
The RBI has also raised concerns over the recent increase in FIIs capital inflow in the Indian debt markets, underscoring that this trend can turn volatile in the wake of changes in global markets, especially in the US, the world's largest economy. If the US surprises investors with changes in its monetary policy, there might be certain adverse impact on domestic markets.
Regarding the banking sector, the RBI has noted that asset quality stress still remain for the banks. Apex bank expects that gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio has gone up by 0.4 percentage points over the last six months to 4.5% in September and may improve to 4% by March 2016 if there is a sustained economic improvement.
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