Banking sector remains subdued despite improving macro-economic condition: RBI’s FSR

30 Dec 2014 Evaluate

In not so encouraging development for the banking industry, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its Financial Stability Report (FSR), pointed that, while the Indian economy was in better position on account slowing inflation, political stability and a lower current account deficit, the banking sector remained subdued owing to weak demand for credit and pressure on asset quality.

India’s Apex Bank pointed that even though liquidity scenario in the banking system had improved since the publication of the previous FSR in June, 2014, the risks arising out of deterioration in asset quality and soundness of banks persisted.

The stress tests showed that the overall gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) of all scheduled commercial banks could decline to 4% by March 2016 from 4.5% as of end September 2014 if the economy improves, but also pointed to the chances of GNPA level worsening to 6.3% during the same period, if the recovery failed to materialize. Until September, Indian banks have about Rs 2.7 lakh crore worth of GNPAs, while the total restructured loans under the corporate debt restructuring channel alone stands about Rs 2.6 lakh crore.

Going by the stressed assets, under a severe stress scenario, among various sectors, the engineering sector is expected to register the highest GNPA ratio at 12.0 percent by March 2016 followed by the cement sector (10.6 percent), the RBI noted. The report also underscored that PSBs (public sector banks) continued to record the highest level of stressed advances at 12.9% of their total advances in September 2014, followed by their private peers at 4.4%.

It warned that the system level of Capital to Risk Weighted Asset Ratio (CRAR) could decline to 9.8% by March, 2016 from 12.8% in September, 2014, under such severe stress scenario.

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