Global financial services firm, HSBC, in its report has highlighted that India's GDP growth momentum continues to remain weak as stalled investments have kept resources locked up. It expects GDP growth to be slow for the October-December as well as the current quarter. Notably, the country's GDP expanded 5.3% in the September quarter, slower than the 5.7% pace in the preceding June quarter.
However, financial services firm pointed out the likelihood of growth picking up in 2015-16 and 2016-17 tailing the revival in investment and second-generation reforms. Additionally, it also highlighted the impact of declining crude oil prices on the purchasing consumer power and repairing corporate balance sheet.
HSBC, in its report pegged India’s growth rate, which had fallen under 5%, to be between 5.4%-5.9% this fiscal and emphasized the need for quicker reforms and lower oil prices to lift growth. However, it called for implementation of far-reaching legislation o sustain this success. Notably, in 2015, key legislations such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill, Land Acquisition Bill, Insurance Bill and the Coal Ordinance will be debated in Parliament, the passage of which would be critical for meaningful uptick in growth.
On the Reserve Bank of India's policy strategy, HSBC noted the likelihood of 50 basis point rate cuts in 2015 and opined India’s central bank to focus more on reforms to bring down the cost of capital which would help reduce credit risk premium, which banks demand as compensation for taking on the risk of nonpayment of loans. RBI’s governor, Raghuram Rajan, during the last monetary policy review in December, kept interest rate unchanged, reasoning that a shift in stance is 'premature' but hinted that a cut may come in early 2015, if inflation continues to ease and government acts on the fiscal side.
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