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Indian economy likely to grow at 6.5% in FY16: India Ratings

16 Jan 2015 Evaluate

A leading rating agency India Ratings has expected that Indian economy to grow at 6.5% in the next fiscal from 5.6% this fiscal. The rating agency is of the view that a number of announcements made in the last Budget to address the structural issues plaguing industrial and infrastructure sectors could gather pace in the next fiscal, besides the government will announce few more initiative in the new Budget to boost the economic growth.

Moreover, the government’s push for ‘Make in India’ which focuses on select 26 sectors and improving the ‘ease of doing business will aid the manufacturing and industrial growth. India Ratings also estimated the industry to grow at 6.5% in FY16 against the projected 3.6% in the current fiscal. On inflation front, it highlighted that wholesale price index (WPI) and consumer price index (CPI) based inflation to moderate to 2.8% and 6.0%, respectively, in FY16. Further, it hopes that the RBI to cut the repo rate by another 75bps by FY16, after 25 basis points cut January 15.

On declining crude oil prices, the agency noted that declining crude prices is a windfall gain for the Indian economy. It has improved both the inflation and fiscal outlook.  Referring to fiscal deficit, it noted that measures such as dramatic fall in global crude prices, an increase in excise on petrol and diesel, cancellation of coal block allocations and penalties imposed, higher surplus transferred by RBI to the government and the announced 10% cut in the non-Plan expenditures, are all likely to help the government balance its revenue and expenditure better in FY15. However, these measures will still not be enough to bridge the gap arising out of the shortfall in tax and non-tax revenue and the fiscal deficit in FY15 will be 4.2% of GDP. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit could fall to 3.9 % in FY16 with higher growth, expected tax reforms and expenditure rationalisation.

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