Inflation may go up with increased fuel prices

25 Jun 2011 Evaluate

The increased prices of diesel, kerosene, and domestic cooking gas has raised the concerns of common man, Reserve Bank of India and government, as the increase of these petroleum products would have upward pressure on inflation, which is hovering around 9%. On June 24, government increased diesel prices by Rs 3/litre, kerosene by Rs 2/ litre and domestic cooking gas Rs 50 per cylinder due to increase in international crude oil prices. On other hand, it also reduced the custom and excise duties in order to reduce the revenue loss of the public owned oil marketing companies (OMCs).

The inflation which rose to 9.06% in month of May from 8.66% in last month has been moving above the RBI’s comfort zone from past few months. And government’s decision of increasing fuel prices especially diesel, which accounts for 4.67% in Wholesale Price Index (WPI) will have significant impact on the inflation scenario of the country. Diesel which is used as primary input in transportation, manufacturing and agriculture sector, the hike of Rs 3/litre would lead to increase in prices of almost all the commodities from vegetable to industrial products. The direct or indirect impact of this increase in diesel price may increase inflation by almost 100 basis points. In May, state owned OMCs increased the prices of petrol by Rs 5 and the recent Rs 50 increase in the domestic cooking gas, would make current inflation scenario worsen.

The inflation which is hovering around 9%, has made RBI to increase its policy rates by 10 times in last 16 months, however, this increased policy rates has adversely affected the industry and common man by increasing cost of capital and increasing the burden of EMI to common man. The Apex bank is likely to maintain its monetary policy stance to curb inflation, and further hike in policy rates is expected by the RBI. The high inflation and tight monetary policy standing reducing the pace of growth, affecting the government revenue collection target. To moderate fuel price hike, government have reduce the import duty and excise duty and also removed the custom duty, because of this decision, government would loss around Rs 49,000 crore in the current financial year. 

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