India’s GDP growth likely slow to 7-7.25% in FY12: Rangarajan

31 Jan 2012 Evaluate

With slowing industrial growth and uncertain global economy, India’s GDP growth is likely to decline 7-7.2% in 2010-11, from the earlier estimate of 8.2%, the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) chairman, C Rangarajan said. He attributed the sluggish growth to slackening of industrial output and the general slowdown in global environment. Rangarajan’s estimates are in line with the government’s estimates of 7-7.5% growth but slightly greater than the World Bank’s projection of 6.8% and UN’s projection of 7.1% growth for the FY12 fiscal.

However, expressed hope that the GDP growth may be better in 2012-13 due to likely decline in inflation, improvement in infrastructure and greater clarity on issues like land acquisition and environment. He further said the broad macro-economic parameters relating to savings and investments were conducive to achieving a growth rate of 8-9% in a sustained manner.

By adding further he said that the government will find it difficult to stick to its fiscal deficit target of 4.6% of GDP this fiscal, but it will make an attempt to stay close to this number to gain credibility. He advised the government to draw up an appropriate roadmap to reach the FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management) target of 3% of GDP. Expressing concern over the country’s rising inflation, Rangarajan said that India needed to control its inflation if it wanted sustained high growth. 

Rangarajan was of the opinion that India should use all of its policy instruments to bring down the current inflation and re-anchor inflationary expectations to the 5% comfort zone. He expected headline inflation to come down to below 7% by March 2012, given its easing in December 2011. Rangarajan further said that ‘we however have to bear in mind that the rationalization process in the pricing of petroleum products is still to be completed and, as and when this happens, it will impact overall inflation.’

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