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Lower oil prices to alleviate India's high inflation and spur economic growth: Moody’s

12 Feb 2015 Evaluate

Global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service, in its latest report “Global Macro Outlook 2015-16: Lower oil price fails to spur global growth' has said that the lower oil prices is expected to alleviate India's high inflation and spur economic growth. Moody’s said it would not revise its forecasts for the the Group of 20 which includes the leading industrialized and developing nations, citing a variety of offsets to the expected windfalls but it said that the United States and India' are among the main beneficiaries (among G20 nations) from cheaper oil, as consumers and companies spend part of the gains in real income. Moody's forecasts GDP growth of less than 1 percent in 2015 in the eurozone and Japan.

According to the rating agency, the lower oil prices which are expected to be sustained would in principle provide a significant boost to global growth but will weigh on net oil exporters’ growth. Moody's has raised its 2015 US GDP growth forecast to 3.2% - from 3% in the last quarterly report in November 2014 - and expects growth to remain strong at 2.8% in 2016. Cheaper energy should add to US companies' already strong profits and promote business investment, the report says. The lower oil price reinforces other positive economic factors in the US, including low unemployment and the potential for real wage increases.

Moody's global growth outlook is based on the assumption that oil prices will average $55 a barrel (Brent) in 2015, rising to $65 on average in 2016. The report assumes that oil prices will stay near current levels in 2015 because demand and supply conditions are unlikely to change markedly in the near future.

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