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  3. Global ratings agencies not much convinced with the Budget

Global ratings agencies not much convinced with the Budget

03 Mar 2015 Evaluate

Although the first full year budget of the new government has been termed pragmatic, it failed to turn heads of global ratings agencies and Standard & Poor's (S&P) ruled out a rating upgrade for India. Its senior Director stated that 'In terms of the structural effects of the budget, we see the improvement has been not as great as it could have been... We don't see the rating going up in the next year or so'. Though, the rating agency has lauded the budget by saying that it highlights the government's commitment to keeping the fiscal deficit low despite lower-than-expected revenue growth. S&P currently rates India at 'BBB-minus', its lowest investment grade rating, with a 'Stable' outlook.

Similarly, the other rating agency Fitch said the government's fiscal consolidation strategy spelt out in Budget is 'less aspiring' than in the past. It further stated that 'The medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy is less aspiring than in the past, which is negative from a sovereign rating perspective.' Fitch Ratings said while the budget shows this government's continued orientation on implementation of structural reforms, it could have been more ambitious on the fiscal front

All the three major global ratings agencies Moody's, Crisil and Care Ratings had red-flagged the country's delayed fiscal consolidation roadmap after the Finance Minister set the country's fiscal deficit target for the 2015-16 fiscal year at 3.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) and said it would reduce the target gradually to 3% by 2017-18, a year later than previously estimated.

Moody's said the Budget has prioritised growth over fiscal consolidation but it may not have any impact on the country's sovereign rating. Though, it said that Union Budget 2015-16 is credit positive for corporates and a mixed bag for the banks. The government proposal to improve governance and set up an autonomous bank board bureau and proposed introduction of a new bankruptcy law would also be credit positive.

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