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Inflation targeting 'credit positive' for India: Moody's

05 Mar 2015 Evaluate

In a major boost to India's sovereign outlook, global rating agency Moody's underscored that the new 'inflation targeting' mechanism is a 'credit positive' development and it would make RBI's monetary policy tools much more effective. According to the agency, inflation targeting is forward looking as this would encourage a focus on future, rather than past, price trends.

Moody's underscored that quantitative inflation targeting would foster transparency and predictability in monetary policy, as capital market participants, businesses and the public understand the drivers of central bank actions and hence has termed this move as “credit positive”. Additionally, it emphasized that increase in monetary policy transparency and effectiveness would just lessen volatility in international capital flows into India and support institutional strengthening via accountability.

Moody's, while cautioning that unchecked inflation would have a greater chance of hurting growth, added that inflation between 2011 and 2014 inflation was largely driven by food and commodity prices but it ultimately compromised growth.

However, as per the present monetary policy framework agreement between the RBI and the Government, RBI will target to lower inflation to below 6 per cent by January 2016 and further to 4 per cent with a band of (+/-) 2% in 2016-17. According to Prime Minister, Narendra Modi that the new mechanism would increase the predictability and effectiveness of RBI's monetary policy, while the effectiveness of its monetary tools would increase because 'inflation targeting' would take into account future -- rather than past-- price trends.

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