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  3. Fitch expects Indian growth to accelerate to 8% in FY16 and 8.3% in FY17

Fitch expects Indian growth to accelerate to 8% in FY16 and 8.3% in FY17

23 Mar 2015 Evaluate

International credit rating agency Fitch in its latest report on ‘Global Economic Outlook’ has said that India is the only BRIC nation, where growth will accelerate, to 8 per cent in FY16 and 8.3 per cent in FY17, based on revised data series. Fitch had earlier forecasted growth rates of 6.5 per cent for 2015-16 and 6.8 per cent for 2016-17, based on the old series.

The Central Statistical Office (CSO) has recently changed the base year for calculation of GDP to 2011-12 from 2004-05 earlier, which resulted in an increase in the official real GDP growth number for FY14 to 6.9 per cent (at market prices) from 4.7 per cent (at factor costs).

The rating agency has praised the government's effort to produce GDP data in line with international standards and said that while plenty of policy initiatives will likely have a positive effect on real GDP growth, including structural reforms and some fiscal and monetary policy loosening, the impact of such measures takes time to show up in higher growth. It also said that these new GDP growth levels and the pick-up from mid-2013 are difficult to reconcile with indicators and anecdotal evidence that show low investment levels, weak corporate balance sheets and a rise in banks' non-performing assets.

For the global growth Fitch expects GDP to grow by 2.7 per cent in FY16 and 3 per cent in FY17, up from an estimate of 2.5 per cent in FY15. It has further said that the growth will accelerate in 2015-16 in all of the three largest advanced economies for the first time since 2010, while emerging markets will continue to slow, due primarily to recession in Russia and Brazil and the structural adjustment in China.

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