Trade deficit likely to cross 3.5% of GDP this fiscal: Khullar

10 Feb 2012 Evaluate

India’s trade deficit is likely cross 3.5% of GDP in the fiscal year ending March 2012. A slowdown in exports combined with ballooning import bills threaten to make FY’12 the worst fiscal in the past eight years. Trade Secretary, Rahul Khullar has projected that the trade gap in FY’12 is likely to touch $160 billion, higher than the earlier estimate of about $150 billion.

He has further stated that FY’13 is likely to be a tough fiscal for the Indian economy given the uncertainty in the US and Europe markets and rising import bills. The Indian government also may not be in a position to provide any fiscal stimulus to support the exporters, given its strained finances. On the other hand, import bills are on the rise and rose 20.3% year on year in the month of January, 2012 to $40.1 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $14.7 billion for the month.

If the situation persists, the Indian rupee could come under pressure and would have to depend on volatile capital flows to keep it stable. The rupee fell nearly 16% against the US dollar in 2011, before recovering strongly this year. It rebounded on the back of strong capital inflows and measures taken by the central bank to stabilize the exchange rate. A 7% appreciation in the rupee's value against the US dollar since the end of December should help bring down the import bill and help lower the trade gap in the next two months. However the slowdown in exports due to the eurozone crisis is likely to make the coming year difficult.

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