A survey sponsored by RBI has projected the economic growth rate at 7.9 percent for the current fiscal, up from 7.5 percent in 2014-15. Twenty seven professional forecasters who participated in the latest survey round, expect real Gross Value Added at basic price (GVA) to increase by 7.5 per cent in 2014-15. ‘Agriculture & Allied Activities’ and ‘Services’ are expected to grow by 1.1 per cent and 10.6 per cent, respectively. ‘Industry’ growth forecast has been placed at 5.9 per cent, while in 2015-16, GVA is expected to increase by 7.9 per cent, led by growth in ‘Services’ by 10.1 per cent.
Forecasters ascribed maximum 57 per cent chance that GVA growth in 2014-15 will be in the range of 7.0-7.4 per cent, and another 27 per cent probability that it will be in the range of 7.5-7.9 per cent.
Regarding expenditure and savings, the forecasters expect that private final consumption expenditure at current prices will increase by 12.9 per cent in 2014-15 and further by 13.0 per cent in 2015-16, while Gross Saving rate is projected at 30.0 per cent of Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) in 2014-15 and is expected to improve to 31.0 per cent of GNDI in 2015-16. Forecasters expect Gross Fixed Capital Formation rate at 28.6 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 and 29.3 per cent of GDP in 2015-16.
Central Government’s gross fiscal deficit (GFD) is projected at 4.1 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 and is expected to moderate to 3.9 per cent of GDP in 2015-16. The combined GFD of Central and State Governments is projected at 6.5 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 and is expected to improve to 6.3 per cent of GDP in 2015-16. The survey has projected the Current Account Deficit (CAD) at 1.2 per cent and 1.0 per cent (of GDP) in 2014-15 and 2015-16, respectively. Capital Account Balance is expected at 3.5 per cent of GDP for 2014-15.