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  3. Fitch retains India's credit outlook at ‘stable’

Fitch retains India's credit outlook at ‘stable’

10 Apr 2015 Evaluate

A day after global credit rating agency Moody’s upgraded its outlook for the Indian economy to 'positive' from 'stable', another rating agency Fitch has retained India's credit outlook at 'stable' saying although 'dynamism' is back in the economy translation of reforms into higher growth would depend upon actual implementation. However, the global rating agency said that India’s sovereign ratings are constrained by limited improvement in its fiscal position, which is a longstanding key weakness.

Following recent revisions to the GDP data, Fitch has also raised its forecasts for real GDP growth to 8.0% in the financial year ending 31 March 2016 (FY16) and 8.3% in FY17, compared with 7.4% GDP growth in FY15. Fitch's earlier forecasts for FY16 and FY17 were 6.5% and 6.8%, respectively, based on the old series of data. The significantly higher official real GDP growth numbers after the revision by the Central Statistical Office suggest the data include more economic activity than is actually taking place.

The rating agency also noted that the new monetary policy framework agreement based on inflation targeting seems to show the government and RBI's strong resolve to structurally lower inflation. Both the RBI's monetary policy and the government's policies that affect food prices, including the setting of minimum support prices for agricultural products, will strongly influence whether the target will be reached.

Fitch in its report said that the main factors that could lead to positive rating action include fiscal consolidation that would reduce the government debt faster than expected and an improved business environment resulting from implemented reforms and structurally lower inflation levels, which would support higher investment and real gross domestic product growth. However, a deviation from fiscal consolidation, the return of persistently high inflation and a widening current account deficit could result in a negative rating action.

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