In a morale booster to the Indian government, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that India will overtake China as the fastest growing emerging economy in 2015-16 by clocking a growth rate of 7.5 percent on the back of recent policy initiatives. In its latest World Economic Outlook, IMF said that India’s growth is expected to strengthen from 7.2 percent in 2014 to 7.5 percent in 2015, adding that growth will benefit from recent policy reforms, a consequent pick-up in investment, and lower oil prices.
IMF’s growth forecasts for most emerging and developing economies with the important exception of India are slightly worse. Growth is projected to slow from 4.6 percent in 2014 to 4.3 percent in 2015, reflecting a variety of factors like the oil price declines will sharply slow growth for oil exporters, especially those that also face difficult initial conditions and the Chinese authorities’ emphasis on reducing vulnerabilities from recent rapid credit and investment growth will likely cause a further slowdown in investment, particularly in real estate.
The report, released at IMF headquarters on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, has stated that global growth remains moderate, with uneven prospects across the main countries and regions and forecasted global growth to be roughly the same this year than last year, 3.5 percent versus 3.4 percent. It has though said that growth in low-income countries as a group, has stayed high. Growth is expected to slow only slightly to 5.5 percent in 2015, from 6 percent in 2014, and then to rebound in 2016, partly thanks to increased external demand from advanced economy trading partners.
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