IEA slashes again 2012 oil demand growth estimate on weak global cues

11 Feb 2012 Evaluate

Global demand for oil is likely to grow by a meager 0.9% whereas supply will be reasonably good in 2012, as per the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA in its monthly Oil Market Report has downwardly revised its forecast for the sixth consecutive month. IEA expects worldwide crude consumption to increase by 800,000 barrels a day to 89.9 million barrels, from 89.1 million last year. The estimate is 300,000 less than its previous estimate.

As per IEA, demand for oil is linked to economic activity, and since industrial activity globally is likely to slowdown, the demand for oil is also likely to be less. IEAs global growth estimates are based on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) sharp cuts of economic growth estimates of 3.3%, from the earlier 4%. Emerging economies however, are likely to witness robust demand.

Further, ‘the market in 2012 likely has sufficient supply-side flexibility’ to adjust to any loss in Iranian volumes due to international sanctions, the IEA said, noting that customers of Iranian crude had already begun to line up alternatives. Based on 2011 exports, the EU ban could affect up to 600,000 bpd of supplies, adding some estimates suggest up to 1 million bpd of Iran's 2.6 million bpd of exports may be replaced by alternative supplies once sanctions take effect, the IEA added.

On the supply side, rising production in Libya, Iraq and Angola is likely to offset unplanned outages in Syria, Yemen, South Sudan and the North Sea and the market is expected to remain reasonably well supplied. Supply from the OPEC countries comprising of Libya, Saudi Arabia and the UAE has gone up to 30.9 mb/d, the highest level since October 2008. Non-OPEC supply fell by 0.2 mb/d to 53.2 mb/d in January, on lower global biofuels output, an escalation of conflict in Syria and between Sudan and South Sudan, and continuing outages in the North Sea.

The IEA said oil demand in the most industrialized nations was expected to fall by 0.8%, with gasoline accounting for more than 40% of the decline. The latest preliminary statistics for December point to a sharp fall in North American oil demand, down 4.1% year-on-year, despite reports of economic resilience. The IEA linked this to sharp declines for heating oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) thanks to an unseasonably mild winter in the United States. European oil demand is likely to post the greatest relative decline in 2012, down by 0.3 million bpd from 2011, the IEA said.

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