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Met department predicts 68% probability of a weak monsoon

23 Apr 2015 Evaluate

The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD’s) first outlook for this year’s South-West monsoon (June-September), indicating a second-straight year of deficient rains, is likely to increase the worries of the government coping with unseasonal rains and hailstorm of last month, which will impact the crop production and the economy adversely.

According to IMD, the probability of a deficient monsoon is 33% and the probability of below-normal monsoon is 35%. Effectively, there is a 68% probability of a weak monsoon. The Met Department predicted that rainfall could be 93 per cent (plus/minus five per cent) of the long period average (LPA). It classifies rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 89 cm as normal. The onset of the South-West monsoon will be announced on May 15, and then only there will be a clearer idea of distribution for the June forecast. Later, as usual, IMD will issue an update to its forecast in June, when region-wise and monthly predictions will be released.

The latest forecast from the IMD-IITM coupled model forecast indicates El Nino conditions are likely to persist during the South-West monsoon season. Several international Met agencies too have forecast a 70 per cent probability of an El Nino event in 2015. In India, El Nino had led to severe monsoon failure in 2002 and 2009. The Earth Sciences Minister, Harsh Vardhan said that constant monitoring is being done and the Prime Minister’s Office and Cabinet Secretariat have also been told to be prepared. However, the latest forecast raises concerns for output prospects for major summer crops such as rice, cane, soybean and cotton in the country that is a key global producer of these farm commodities. Monsoon is the single biggest factor in the performance of kharif crops, including rice, sugar and oilseeds, which account for nearly half of India's food output.

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