Ease in policy rates, inflation likely to push up growth to 7.4% in FY13: Nomura

13 Feb 2012 Evaluate

Indian economy could grow at 7.4% in FY’13 instead of the estimated 6.9% (CSO estimates), according to a report by Nomura. The banking major has predicted that easing of interest rates by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on the back of falling inflation, could provide an impetus to economic activity and push growth figures up.

Nomura, in its recently released report ‘Asia Economic Alert’ has stated that due to some relief in the commodity prices, the RBI may go for a rate cut of 100 basis in the next fiscal. The rate cut is likely to be limited as structural inflation in the economy is still high and so is the fiscal deficit. Added to this is the uncertainty in the government’s policies.

It further stated that a combination of tight monetary conditions, high inflation and a policy logjam has hurt investment activity and severely dampened industrial sector output growth to its lowest level in the decade. Earlier this month, the Advanced Estimates released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) said that growth in 2011-12 would slip to 6.9%, the lowest in three years, due to slowdown in manufacturing and agriculture.

In its efforts to tame inflation which was near double-digit during most of last two years, the RBI hiked key policy rates 13 times, totaling 350 basis points, between March 2010 and October 2011. The Indian industry blamed this hike for the slowing down of industrial activity. On the front of the government, various economic legislations including bills to reform insurance sector and those on taxation matters have been stuck in Parliament due to lack of consensus between the ruling and opposition parties. However, inflation fell to a two-year low of 7.47% in December 2011 and RBI has hinted that it may go in for rate cuts if inflation remains at moderate levels for some time.

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