India’s pro-cyclical industries to witness improvement over next 12-18 months: Moody’s Investor Service

11 May 2015 Evaluate

According to International rating agency, Moody’s Investor Service the condition of India's infrastructure debt issuers and pro-cyclical industries is expected to improve over the next 12-18 months. This improvement is likely to be driven by upturn in economic growth, a gradual pass-through of interest rate cuts, weakness in international commodity prices and the government's pro-growth policy agenda.

Besides, the international rating agency also expects an improvement in credit conditions of all the industries which are directly correlated to India's domestic economic cycle, including industrials, transport infrastructure, metals and automotives.

Moody’s asserted that Indian government's recent policy agenda, including diesel price deregulation, the lifting of the iron ore mining ban, the Coal Mines Special Provisions Bill and the Mines & Minerals Development and Regulation Bill would be benefiting refining, metals, steel and power companies. But, it also highlighted that though other sectors were yet to see a specific boost from government policy, but were likely benefit from the government's pro-growth agenda. Notably, Moody’s expects a strained earnings and cash flow for issuers in the upstream oil and gas, and chemicals sectors due to weak oil prices globally.

Encouragingly, Moody’s in its just-released report titled “Non-Financial Corporates and Infrastructure -- India: Credit Conditions to Strengthen, with Growth Recovery and Reform Agenda”, points out that the latest economic data suggests that economy would witness a gradual pick up as number of stubborn macroeconomic challenges, such as inflation and the current account balance, have eased significantly.

It pointed out reduction in both the country's headline inflation rate and current account deficit provides a more stable backdrop for Indian corporates in terms of operating margins, market borrowing costs and the exchange rate.

However, the report pointed out to certain structural challenges still persisted, particularly, the government's ability to push through the Land Acquisition Bill and a unified goods and services tax will be crucial in maintaining positive policy momentum. It also underscored that several industries would continue to wrestle with structural challenges, namely oversupply in the real estate market and weak finances among state electricity boards even as cyclical conditions stabilize or improve.

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